People’s conditional probability judgments follow probability theory (plus noise)
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Surprisingly rational: probability theory plus noise explains biases in judgment.
The systematic biases seen in people's probability judgments are typically taken as evidence that people do not use the rules of probability theory when reasoning about probability but instead use heuristics, which sometimes yield reasonable judgments and sometimes yield systematic biases. This view has had a major impact in economics, law, medicine, and other fields; indeed, the idea that peop...
متن کاملTitle Surprisingly rational : Probability theory plus noise explainsbiases in judgment
The systematic biases seen in people’s probability judgments are typically taken as evidence that people do not reason about probability using the rules of probability theory, but instead use heuristics which sometimes yield reasonable judgments and sometimes systematic biases. This view has had a major impact in economics, law, medicine, and other fields; indeed, the idea that people cannot re...
متن کاملLexicographic probability, conditional probability, and nonstandard probability
The relationship between Popper spaces (conditional probability spaces that satisfy some regularity conditions), lexicographic probability systems (LPS’s) [Blume, Brandenburger, and Dekel 1991a; Blume, Brandenburger, and Dekel 1991b], and nonstandard probability spaces (NPS’s) is considered. If countable additivity is assumed, Popper spaces and a subclass of LPS’s are equivalent; without the as...
متن کاملOn the provenance of judgments of conditional probability.
In standard treatments of probability, Pr(A|B) is defined as the ratio of Pr(A intersectionB) to Pr(B), provided that Pr(B)>0. This account of conditional probability suggests a psychological question, namely, whether estimates of Pr(A|B) arise in the mind via implicit calculation of Pr(A intersectionB)/Pr(B). We tested this hypothesis (Experiment 1) by presenting brief visual scenes composed o...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Cognitive Psychology
سال: 2016
ISSN: 0010-0285
DOI: 10.1016/j.cogpsych.2016.06.006